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  5. Stock Market Outlook - 2025-09-28
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Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of September 28th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Index: Uptrend
    Institutional Activity: Uptrend
    On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 0.3% last week.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

All three indicators remain bullish.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Technical Analysis - September 28 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS

Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, and it was Materials turn ( $XLB ) to lead on the downside.  Adding insult to injury, Materials also fell into bearish bias; Healthcare fell to neutral.

Weekly price performance of S&P500 sector ETFs

S&P500 Sector Performance - September 28 2025

Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed last week with a gain of 0.8%!  All other sector styles struggled, with High Beta ( $SPHB ) down the most.  Low beta climbed up to neutral bias, while High Dividend ( $SPHD ) stumbled down to neutral.

Weekly price performance by sector style

S&P500 Sector Style Performance - September 28 2025

Oil ( $USO ) jumped almost 5% last week, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed again.  Those two assets also flipped their biases; Oil to bullish and Bitcoin to bearish.  The dollar showed signs of life last week; something to keep an eye on as a strengthening dollar will impact asset prices.

Weekly price performance by asset class

Asset Class Performance - September 28 2025

COMMENTARY

U.S. equity indexes came into the week overbought, so last week's downside volatility wasn't too surprising.  Market participants quickly bought the dip, with the $SPX finding support at the 21-day moving average.  

The third and final update for Q2 GDP came in at +3.8%, a full 50 basis points higher than the second estimate, thanks increases in consumption.

August PCE data was inline with estimates and remains "sticky".

PCE (y/y) Actual Prior Expected
Headline +2.7% +2.6% +2.7%
Core +2.9% +2.9% +2.9%

This week is employment data (JOLTS, NFP), and ISM data. And there's the possible shutdown of the U.S. government, unless Congress can pass the necessary appropriations bills to keep federal agencies funded...which seems unlikely.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com



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Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

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