My expectations are mixed. With a relatively flat market, attempts to get into and out of the market often leave investors and traders with a whole lot of nothing...and brokers with a lot of profit from commissions.
That said, the weekly market outlook has a longer timeframe, so the volatility (in terms of number of buy and sell signals) should be low.
The results are pretty good. I talk about safe investing as a path to wealth, which includes aggressively protecting your capital from losses. And that is exactly what the methods managed to accomplish last year.
Every Sunday, I review the previous week’s market action and decide whether the outlook (uptrend, mixed, or downtrend) has changed, based on the signals from the 3 trading methodologies.
By cross-referencing three different methods and only changing outlooks when they all align, I reduce the number of false signals.
That means, if you decided to take action, you'd make your moves between the market's opening price on Monday (the next day) and the closing price on Friday afternoon. For better or worse, I'm using Friday's weekly closing price as my buy/sell price for any trade. You will rarely, if ever, get the opening price, funny things happen when price "gaps" at the open, and catching the high or low during the week isn't feasible for 95% of the people reading this blog.
If the outlook is mixed, sit on your hands and watch.
If the outlook changes to a downtrend, the entire position is sold.
Are you always going to buy in an uptrend, sit on your hands when the market is "mixed", or sell before a downtrend takes hold? No. General trends are great for giving you a sense of the overall investing environment. But each of your positions needs to be evaluated on its own merits.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).