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Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of June 15th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend
    On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, despite intensifying conflict on the world stage.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.4% last week.  The index sits ~6% above the 50-day moving average and ~3% above the 200-day moving average.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Technical Analysis - June 15 2025

The ADX, Institutional Activity, and On-Balance Volume are all in bullish territory.  Distribution days remain low, but are worth watching over the next week or two.

Weekly price performance of S&P500 sector ETFs

Energy ( $XLE ) led sectors higher last week, while Industrials ( $XLI ) lagged.  Energy ( $XLE ) and Healthcare ( $XLV ) improved to bullish bias.

Weekly price performance by sector style

High Beta ( $SPHB ) was the best performing style for the second week in a row, and Momentum ( $MTUM ) lagged.  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) improved to bullish bias.

Weekly price performance by asset class

Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher again last week, while the U.S. Dollar was the worst performer.  U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) improved to neutral again, continuing its recent oscillations between bias levels.

COMMENTARY

The uptrend in equities has remained quite resilient despite recent increases global conflict.  Many market participants point out that the typical "flight to safety" trade (U.S. bonds) hasn't occurred, so financial markets are saying all is well.  That's no reason to get complacent.

This time around, flows shifted more toward hard assets like gold or platinum, rather than U.S.-based assets like the dollar and bonds.  Even silver has been on the move.  So the flight to safety is on, just not into the traditional allocations.

The volatility index ( $VIX ) is back above 20 as well, signaling elevated risk and choppy price action ( <20 = low risk / calm, 20-30 = elevated risk / choppy, >30 = high risk / crash ).

For now, continue harvesting gains from outperforming / overbought areas and redeploy to those that are lagging / oversold, within assets showing bullish trends.  But be aware that the investing environment can and does change quickly.

Inflation data rose slightly in May, though not as much as anticipated in most cases.  Headline CPI rose 0.1%, while Core CPI remained steady.

CPI (y/y) Actual Prior Expected
Headline +2.4% +2.3% +2.5%
Core +2.8% +2.8% +2.9%

Headline PPI rose in May, while Core PPI fell.  April data was revised higher by +0.1%.

PPI (y/y) Actual Prior Expected
Headline +2.6% +2.5% +2.6%
Core +3.0% +3.2%* +3.1%

This week, May retail sales data comes out Tuesday, FOMC makes another interest rate decision Wednesday, and US markets are closed Thursday for Juneteenth.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics



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