No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: November 15th
= Downtrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: November 15, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2026-11-15
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook maintains a downtrend, despite last week's bounce from oversold levels.

Emerging Market Equities, Energy, and Momentum outperformed; Bitcoin, Real Estate, and Small Cap Value underperformed.  Inflation remains elevated and AI-related events continue to roil the markets.

Read the full analysis, including charts & market commentary, at Invest-Safely.com:

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 2.5% last week.  The index is:

  • ~1 % below the 50-day moving average
  • ~3% above the 200-day moving average
Equity indexes rallied from oversold conditions last week.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-22.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-11-15

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Equities got some love last week, with Emerging Market ( $EEM ) outperforming other assets.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was the worst performer.  Oil ( $USO ) dropped bearish bias.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-11-15

S&P500 Sectors

All sectors were green last week, with Energy ( $XLE ) bouncing back after the prior week's selloff.  Real Estate ( $XLRE) was the smallest gainer.  Communications and Energy ( $XLC, $XLE ) moved back to neutral.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-11-15

S&P500 Investing Styles

All styles were green last week too, with Momentum ( $MTUM ) leading the way.  Small Cap Value ( $IWN ) brought up the rear.  Mid-cap Growth and Quality ( $IJH, $QUAL ) moved up to neutral bias; Mid-Cap Value ( $IJJ ) moved to bullish.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-11-15

COMMENTARY

Markets

Equities experienced a lot of volatility, but managed to snap their recent weekly losing streak. Following the espionage allegations, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned when news of another affair leaked, triggering a selloff across semiconductor and AI-linked stocks.

Hawkish inflation data caused interest rates to resume their march higher, pushing bonds lower. Yields and the dollar continue to pressure gold lower.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

CPI and PPI showed that inflation remains stubbornly high for both consumer and producer prices. We didn't get any year over year figures due to the absence of last year's data (government shutdown). Fed speakers added to hawkish speculation, mentioning 0.50% and/or a faster pace of rate hikes, while the market priced in 100% odds of a December rate hike.

Geopolitics

Fading fears of U.S. military strikes on Iran allowed oil to move lower, but the messages are mixed. President Trump stated he's "highly unlikely" to order new attacks on Iran. At the same time, the Pentagon deployed a third carrier strike group to the region and established "Task Force Iron Gate" to expand its maritime blockade of Iran. Houthi forces also launched drone and missile attacks targeting Saudi oil pipelines and energy facilities.

The White House also confirmed that President Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold their first-ever trilateral meeting on November 19 in China, which could add some volatility later in the week.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Retail sales and Fed speeches, and FOMC minutes data are on the menu for the coming week.

  • Monday: Fed Chairman Speech
  • Tuesday: Retail Sales
  • Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thursday: --
  • Friday: ---

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.


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Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:

In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
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The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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