No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: September 20th = Downtrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: September 20, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2027-09-20
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend to start the week.

Bitcoin, Healthcare, and Momentum outperformed; Development Market Equities, Utilities, and Mid Cap Value underperformed.  Interest rates, the U.S. dollar and geopolitics continue to drive asset prices.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.1% last week.  The index is:

  • ~0.5 % above the 50-day moving average
  • ~7% above the 200-day moving average

The index sliced through the 50-day moving average on Wednesday, but managed to climb back above it by the end of the week.

  • Average Directional Index: Bearish
    • ADX fell further into bearish territory after starting off in neutral
  • Institutional Activity: Neutral
    • 7 distribution days in the count (high) with a cluster during past 2 weeks
    • Price is at the 50-day moving average
  • On-Balance Volume: Bearish
    • OBV improved toward the end of the week, but remains bearish
Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-22.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-09-20

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) outperformed other asset classes last week; Developed Market Equities ( $VEA ) underperformed and moved to neutral bias.  The U.S. dollar also strengthened from bearish to neutral bias.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-09-20

S&P500 Sectors

Healthcare ( $XLV ) was the best sector last week; Utilities ( $XLU ) was the worst.  Financials ( $XLF ) dropped to bearish bias.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-09-20

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum and Large Cap Growth ( $MTUM, $IWF ) led investing style ETFs to the upside; Mid cap Value to the downside.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) moved to neutral bias.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-09-20

COMMENTARY

Markets

Equities spent the past 7 weeks moving sideways, retracing the 3-day August rally that provided most of Q3's returns.  Rate sensitive stocks (small caps) and bonds have struggled more than large cap and technology tickers; commodities continue to outperform.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

The FOMC raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stating that the hike is a signal of the committees effort to meet inflation targets.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical volatility continues to drive risks across investment themes.

Houthi forces seized strategic locations and tightened their hold of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further disrupting commercial shipping.  Adding in the recent bombing / shut-down of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline puts even more pricing pressure on oil and gas markets.

Russia and Ukraine struck each other with large barrages of missile and drone strikes, increasing concerns that conflict will spill over into neighboring European countries. One recent example was the strike on a passenger train near the the Ukraine-Poland border, shortly after European security officials and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited the area.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Not much on tap this week as far as economic news is concerned.

  • Monday: --
  • Tuesday: --
  • Wednesday: --
  • Thursday: --
  • Friday: Durable Goods

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.


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Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:

In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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