No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: September 13th = Downtrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: September 13, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2027-09-13
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook flipped to a downtrend last week, but the technical signals aren't aligned.

Oil, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Bitcoin, Healthcare, and Defensive underperformed.  Rate hike expectations and the Iran War risk premium continue to pressure asset prices.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX )lost 0.8% last week.  The index is:

  • ~1% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~7% above the 200-day moving average
The index bounced off the 50-day moving average on lower volume Friday, but didn't rally enough to flip a second indicator to bullish.
  • Average Directional Index: Neutral
    • The signal flipped to bearish, which was enough to shift the overall signal to bearish, before getting back to neutral on Friday.
  • Institutional Activity: Bullish
    • 5 distribution days in the count
    • Price found support at the 50-day moving average
  • On-Balance Volume: Bearish
    • OBV decline further into bearish territory last week

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-22.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-09-13

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) outperformed other asset classes last week; Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed.  U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) moved to bearish bias.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-09-13

S&P500 Sectors

Technology and Energy ( $XLK, $XLE ) were the best sectors last week.  Healthcare ( $XLV ) was the worst.  Consumer Staples and Materials ( $XLP, $XLB ) dropped to bearish bias.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-09-13

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) led investing style ETFs to the upside; Defensive was the worst, followed closely by High Dividend and Small Cap Growth.  Quite a few styles fell into bearish bias:  Mid Cap Growth, Small and Mid Cap Value, High Dividend, and Defensive ( $IJH, $IWN, $IJJ, $SPHD, $POWA ).  Quality ( $IWO ) slipped to neutral.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-09-13

COMMENTARY

Markets

Equities had a rough week; inflation data (see below) spiked expectations for a Fed rate hike this week, sending rate sensitive assets (stocks, crypto, bonds) lower. Commodities held their own, led by oil.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

Inflation indexes gave readings well above last year at this time, although month over month changes are have leveled off.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains on the high side. August Headline CPI came in at +3.4% year-over-year, well above last years +2.9%. Core fell from 3.1% last August to 2.6%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed supply-chain costs are still an issue, continuing to put upward pressure on consumer prices. Headline PPI was +5.4%, which is double last years +2.7%. Core PPI was +4.6%, well above last year's +2.9%.

The U.S. Treasury expanded it's purchases of longer-term debt (10-20 year bonds) from $2B to $6B, in attempt to calm recent rate increases. Unfortunately, the market was unimpressed and and rates spiked even higher, sending bonds lower and showcasing that fact that fiscal dominance is overriding government policy decisions.

Geopolitics

Yemen's Houthis expanded the conflict in West Asia via a series of attacks on a Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. The actions roiled global energy markets and sent oil prices higher.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

It's FOMC week; time for a few days of "will they / won't they" with regard to short-term interest rate adjustments.
  • Monday: --
  • Tuesday: --
  • Wednesday: August Retail Sales, FOMC Rate Decision
  • Thursday: August Housing Starts
  • Friday: --

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

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Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:

In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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