No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: July 12th =
Uptrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: July 12, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2026-07-12
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for equities.

Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Growth outperformed; Bonds, Materials, and Low Beta underperformed.  Military escalation and AI-related plays drove asset prices, as investors look towards CPI/PPI releases this week.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.2% last week.  The index is:
  • ~2% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~9% above the 200-day moving average
Technicals improved last week, with the ADX looking to join the other indicators in bullish territory.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-22.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-07-12

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led asset class returns last week; Developed Market Bonds underperformed and slipped to neutral bias.  Emerging Market equities climbed back to bullish bias.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-07-12

S&P500 Sectors

Energy ( $XLE ) was the strongest sector, while Materials ( $XLB ) led to the downside and reversed to bearish bias.  Both Consumer Staples and Real Estate ( $XLP, $XLRE ) retreated to neutral .

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-07-12

S&P500 Investing Styles

Large Cap Growth ( $IEF ) was the best performing style, while Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the weakest.  No bias changes last week.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-07-12

COMMENTARY

Markets

Equities rise last week following another stock debut in the AI-space, with shares of South Korea's "SK Hynix" rallying after a $26.5B offering on the NASDAQ. Bonds were lower, thanks in large part to a hawkish FOMC (see below) and dollar strength; both of which sent gold lower.  Oil rebounded sharply on renewed military actions in the Middle East.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

The FOMC minutes from June's meeting revealed a increasingly hawkish Fed, with 50% of the committee advocating for at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026 to curb inflation.

Geopolitics

Drone and missiles strikes escalated last week, essentially ending the U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement and sending oil prices higher.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Markets react to the latest release of CPI and PPI inflation data next week, as well as two days of testimony from the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
  • Monday: --
  • Tuesday: CPI, Warsh Testimony
  • Wednesday: PPI, Warsh Testimony
  • Thursday: Retail Sales
  • Friday: Preliminary UofM Survey Data

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.


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Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:

In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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Hypothetical Presentations:
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The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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