No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: June 21st =
Uptrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: June 21, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2026-06-21
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, as financial markets get ready for the summer trading season.

Emerging market equities, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Oil, Energy, and High Dividends underperformed.  Geopolitical headlines and a hawkish Fed were key drivers for last week's asset price volatility.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week.  The index is:
  • ~3% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~9% above the 200-day moving average
A volatile week for equity markets, with a gap-up opening, retraced to fill that gap, then a massive options expiration, and finally coming to an early close at the 21-day moving average.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-22.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-06-21

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Emerging Market Equities ( $EEM ) had the best week, rallying almost 5%.  Oil ( $USO ) lagged other assets classes again, dropping ~11% after losing bullish bias.  No changes in bias last week.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-06-21

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed with a gain of almost 5%.  On the other hand, Energy ( $XLE )  was pummeled, dropping almost 6%.   Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) slipped back to neutral bias.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-06-21

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) outpaced High Beta ( $SPHB ) to led investing styles last week, while High Dividend ( $SPHD )  led to the downside. Low Beta, High Dividends and Defensives ( $SPLV, $SPHD, $POWA ) eased to neutral bias.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-06-21

COMMENTARY

Markets

Equities continue their recent winning streak, but performance across sectors varied widely. Momentum and High Beta stocks continued crushing the rest of the market, with gains of ~16% over the past 4 weeks.  The announced Intel-Apple partnership helped tech sector outperform, and countered the mid-week FOMC selloff .

A hawkish FOMC sent short-term yields higher (i.e. bonds lower).  Add in a rallying U.S. Dollar, and investors shifted funds away from non-yielding assets like gold.

The oil trade continues to unwind, despite uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding.  The $USO ETF lost ~25% over the past 4 weeks.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used the FOMC press conference to describe his short-term plan for improving the Federal Reserve, including plans to eliminate traditional forward guidance, a shortened official statement, and 5 new task forces to modernize the central bank's operations.  The committee held interest rates steady, but a majority also signaled at least one rate hike later in 2026 to combat sticky core inflation.

Geopolitics

One Wednesday, the U.S. released the official, 14-point framework for ending the U.S.-Iran conflict, which was "formally" signed by President Trump during the G7 summit.  The ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon inject uncertainty into the staying power of the agreement, as the U.S. Vice President met with Iranian delegates in Switzerland on Sunday.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

It's the final trading week ahead of the summer season, when markets traditionally trade a bit more "slowly", until ramping back up in September.
  • Monday: --
  • Tuesday: --
  • Wednesday: ---
  • Thursday: PCE and Final Q1 GDP
  • Friday: ---

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:



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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
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Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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