No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: March 29th =
Downtrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: March 29, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2026-03-29
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend, though there are pockets of oversold conditions despite the elevated volatility.

Oil and Energy continue to outperform, and were joined by small cap value this week.  Bitcoin, Communications, and Large Cap Growth underperformed.  Mixed survey data and a downbeat consumer didn't do anything to combat uncertainty caused by the conflict in West Asia.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) dropped 2.1% last week, falling further below key moving averages.  Th index is now:
  • ~7% below the 50-day moving average
  • ~4% below the 200-day moving average
All 3 technical indicators remain bearish and have shown no signs of changing sides yet:

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-22.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-03-29

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) continued its recent win streak in weekly performance, while Bitcoin lost the most ground.  Only Oil and the U.S. dollar are bullish.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-03-29

S&P500 Sectors

Thanks to the strength in Oil, Energy ( $XLE ) continues to resist the selloff, gaining over 5% last week despite the general market dropped more than 2%.  Communications was the worst sector ( $XLC ), thanks in large part to declines by Alphabet and Meta ( $GOOGL & $META ).  Utilities ( $XLU ) managed to regain bullish bias.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-03-29

S&P500 Investing Styles

Small Cap and Mid Cap Value overperformed and Large Cap Growth underperformed.  All sector styles are bearish.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-03-29

COMMENTARY

Markets

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) is back on the rise and looks destined to close above 30.  Bond volatility ( $MOVE ), remains above 110.  Both continue to signal markets under stress. While many areas in the equities and bonds are oversold verses most traditional technical indicators, markets also tend to crash from oversold levels when volatility is elevated like it is right now.

No need to try and pick a bottom.  Adding to positions when they're below the 200 day moving average is usually a good bet for long-term investors, but the inflationary shock from oil prices has yet to be absorbed.  Wait for prices to re-establish themselves in bullish bias, or at least get back above key moving averages.  The focus on sectors, styles, and industry groups that are showing the most strength.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March 2026, up substantially from last year.  Other the flip side, Services PMI fell to 51.1, down significantly from last year.  Since services has become a larger percentage of the overall economy, this divergence does not bode well for economic growth.

Consumer Sentiment fell year over year, for all age groups and political affiliations. Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with significant investments, experienced the steepest drops in confidence.

Geopolitics

Shipping disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts the price of oil and indirectly impacts the price of almost everything else, from diesel fuel and shipping costs, to synthetic fibers for clothing, to detergents and fertilizers...let along plastic.

President Trump postponed further U.S. attacks on Iranian energy grids to provide a window for "negotiations", but its not clear who is negotiating with whom at this point.  In the meantime, strikes and counterstrikes continue across the region.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Next week the markets are closed for Good Friday, though NFP data will still be released.  We'll get several updates on employment, as well we a speech from Fed Chair Powell and the latest ISM Manufacturing survey data.
  • Monday: Powell Speech
  • Tuesday: JOLTS
  • Wednesday: ADP non-farm payrolls, Retail Sales, ISM Manufacturing
  • Thursday: --
  • Friday: Markets Closed, Non-Farm Payrolls

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:



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In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
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The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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