No-Advice Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: March 15th =
Downtrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: March 15, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2026-03-15
Disclosure: The author holds no material positions in the securities mentioned. See Editorial Policy & Disclosures for details.

The stock market outlook enters week 6 of the current downtrend, as volatility continues to rise.

Oil, Energy and Momentum outperformed; Gold, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and High Dividends underperformed.  Inflation data was mixed ahead of this week's FOMC decision.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) dropped 1.6% last week:
  • ~3.5% below the 50-day moving average
  • ~0.5% above the 200-day moving average
All 3 technical indicators remain bearish and continue to highlight price weakness in the index:

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-03-08.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-03-15

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher again last week, gaining another 10%; that's +52% in the past 4 weeks, and +70% since the bias shifted.  Gold ( $GLD ) led to the downside.  Development Market Equities ( $VEA ) fell to Bearish bias.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-03-15

S&P500 Sectors

Energy ( $XLE ) was the best sector; Consumer Discretionary and Materials ( $XLY, $XLB ) were the worst.  Communications, Industrials, and Materials ( $XLC, $XLI, $XLB ) moved to bearish bias.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-03-15

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) squeezed out the sole gain in investing styles.  High Dividend and Defensives ( $SPHD, $POWA ) were bottom of the barrel. There were no bias changes last week.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-03-15

COMMENTARY

Markets

Investors continue to pile into the U.S. Dollar ( $DXY ), pushing the reserve currency up almost 2% last week and creating more headwinds for and assets that aren't oil.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) consolidated near 65,000, but didn't benefit from the "flight to safety" trade.

Treasury yields rallied off of lows last week, sending rates higher and bond funds lower.  Apparently, investors are concerned that energy prices will remain higher for longer, which will keep inflation higher for longer.  This week's FOMC meeting will be interesting.

Equities had another rough week.  Recent sector strongholds have sold off over the past two weeks.  Industrials and Materials are now bearish bias. Consumer Staples and Real Estate ( $XLP, $XLRE ) look set to test their turning points shortly.

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) ended the week at 27; down from the open at 35 ( ! ), but still in Hedgeye's "chop-bucket" ( elevated uncertainty ) and continuing to trend higher.  Bond volatility ( $MOVE ) broke out last week too, getting into it's version of the "chop-bucket" between 80 and 100.

Until volatility retreats, caution and patience is warranted.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

Inflation data was mixed.  The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) showed slowing inflation year over year; Headline CPI fell 40 basis points to 2.4% and Core dropped 60 basis points to 2.5%.  The Personal Consumption Expenditures ( PCE ) index showed rising prices; Headline PCE climbed 40 basis points to 2.8%, and Core rose 50 basis points to 3.1%.

The revised 2025 Q4 GDP figures showed a growth rate of 0.7%, cutting the first estimate in half and coming in well below the 1.9% increased seen in Q4 2024.  A decline in government spending had the biggest impact ( government shutdown ).

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey ( JOLTS ) rebounded from December's 5-year low, but are still lower on a year over year basis.

Geopolitics

The Strait of Hormuz closure, bombing of Kharg Island, and U.S. Treasury waver for Russian oil dominated headlines and generated a lot of volatility in the fossil-fuel energy space.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Next week is a bit light on the news front; several Fed members speak and PPI comes out Friday.
  • Monday: --
  • Tuesday: Pending Home Sales
  • Wednesday: PPI & FOMC Rate Decision
  • Thursday: New Home Sales
  • Friday: Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly Options Expiration

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:



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The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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