Risk Warning:This analysis is a case study for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: March 1st =
Downtrend

Author: J.Wenger ---- Published: March 01, 2026 ---- Last Updated: 2026-03-01

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, with geopolitical risks primed to inject volatility into financial assets.

Gold, Utilities, and Low Beta outperformed; Crypto, Financials, and Value underperformed.  Producer prices came in higher than expected, which will sharpen the focus on this week's employment data.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) slipped 0.4% last week, ending the back where it started:
  • At the 50-day moving average
  • ~5% above the 200-day moving average
The index tried to retake the 50-day moving average, but gave back the gains immediately, created another lower-high.  All 3 technical indicators are now bearish:

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-02-15.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-03-01

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

S&P500 Sectors

Utilities ( $XLU ) continue to outperform, gaining 3% last week and heading all comers by a wide margin.  Financials ( $XLF ) underperformed.  Communications ( $XLC ) rallied to back to bullish.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-03-01

S&P500 Investing Styles

Low Beta ( $SPLV ) led styles higher; Small and Midcap Value ( $IWN, $IJJ ) lagged, giving back some of their recent gains.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) fell back to neutral bias.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-03-01

Asset Classes

Gold ( $GLD ) was the best asset class last week, and is up more than 50% since turning bullish.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-03-01

COMMENTARY

Markets

Trading and investing in equities has been a slog so far this year. You've seen tickers slide back and forth between bullish and bearish bias, strong earnings met with big sells offs ( **cough** Nvidia **cough** ), and overnight gaps on after-hour headlines.

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) spent almost the entire month of February on the cusp of the "chop zone", confirming the difficult environment we've experienced.

Using a mechanical system, such as the example we use for the stock market outlook, can be frustrating when markets exhibit these characteristics.  That's one reason it's important to diversify into other asset classes.  It's rare that they all move sideways at the same time, so there's always another trade, like recent trends in gold and non-US equities.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

Producer Prices ( PPI ) surprised to the upside: headline rose 1% year over year ( y/y ), while Core increased 2.4% y/y. Not exactly a welcome sign for those expecting rate cuts.

Geopolitics

Negotiations between U.S. and Iranian representatives stalled out during the week, resulting in military strikes during the weekend.  Equity markets are likely to open down ( Sunday night futures ), with a massive volatility spike when New York trading opens on Monday.  Oil and Gold are expected to open higher.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Next week is a bit light on the news front; several Fed members speak and PPI comes out Friday.
  • Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Tuesday: --
  • Wednesday: ADP Employment & ISM Services PMI
  • Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  • Friday: NFP & Retail Sales

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:



If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book via the following Amazon affiliate link:

How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.

It's one of my favorites.

In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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