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Stock Market Outlook: February 15th =
Downtrend


The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend after institutional selling sent price below key levels again.

Non-U.S. Developed Markets, Utilities, and and High Dividends outperformed; Bitcoin, Financials, and Mega-Cap Growth lagged.  Non-farm payrolls were stronger than expected and inflation eased slightly.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1.4% last week, as price traded to and through key levels:
  • ~1% below the 50-day moving average
  • ~5% above the 200-day moving average
The index experience another volatile week, but failed to make a higher high.  And then the technical indicators fell further into bearish territory.

ADX Directional Index: Bearish

  • ADX direction indicators remain bearish
  • The overall trend is still extremely weak
Institutional Activity: Bearish
  • Price broke below the 50 dma on elevated trading volume again
  • 2 distribution days brings the total to 6
On Balance Volume: Bearish
  • On-balance volume moved to bearish after closing below a long-term average

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-02-15.

Technical Analysis – $SPX – 2026-02-15

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

S&P500 Sectors

Utilities ( $XLU ) outperformed by a wide margin, while Financials ( $XLF ) underperformed.  Communications and Financials ( $XLC, $XLF ) dropped to bearish bias, and Utilities ( $XLU ) ramped to bullish.

Performance comparison of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

S&P500 Sector Performance – 2026-02-15

S&P500 Investing Styles

High Dividend stocks ( $SPHD ) led upside, and Mega Cap Growth ( $OWF ) headed the downside and fell back to bearish bias.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) slipped to neutral.

Performance comparison of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns.

Style Performance vs. S&P500 – 2026-02-15

Asset Classes

Non-U.S. Developed Markets ( $VEA ) led asset class returns to the upside, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) led to the downside.  DM bonds ( $BNDX ) strengthened again, moving up to bullish bias.  U.S. equities ( $SPY ) moved to bearish.

Performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar.

Asset Class Performance vs. U.S. Dollar – 2026-02-15

COMMENTARY

Markets

U.S. equity sectors show the defensive posture of capital flows: strong performance in Industrials, Materials, Energy, Healthcare, and Staples.  The breakout in Utilities, along with the move in Real Estate, benefited from a sharp drop in U.S. Treasuries.

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) spent the week on the doorstep of Hedgeye's "chop zone" (a reading from 20 to 30), supporting the general risk-off signals provided by price and volume.

Macroeconomic Data and Policy

Non-Farm Payrolls showed the U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January; above expectations for 70,000 and the Decembers increased of 48,000.

Existing home sales fell 4.4% YoY; the sharpest drop in ~4 years.

January headline CPI slowed from 2.7% to 2.4%; Core figures eased from 2.6% to 2.5%. Energy prices fell slightly, driven by a drop in gasoline prices.

Geopolitics

A quiet week; no major geopolitical events influencing markets action.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week brings several important data releases:
  • Monday: U.S. Markets Closed
  • Tuesday: n/a
  • Wednesday: Housing Starts, Durable Goods, FOMC Minutes
  • Thursday: n/a
  • Friday: PCE

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Price and Volume charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Performance Methodology: All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds. All calculations are consistent across every chart on this page.

Disclaimer: Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals? You'll find it here:



If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book via the following Amazon affiliate link:

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In the past, I reviewed market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

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This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
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Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

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