ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, with the market looking forward to this week's FOMC meeting.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3% last week. The index sits ~1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.
No change in the signals this week; the ADX and On-Balance Volume are bullish, while institutional activity is still mixed.
SPX Technical Analysis - December 07 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed last week. Utilities ( $XLU ) led the to downside and shifted to bearish bias. Real Estate ( $XLRE ) also fell to Bearish, Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB ) downshifted to Neutral. Communications and Discretionary ( $XLC & $XLY ) moved from Neutral to Bullish.
S&P500 Sector Performance - December 07 2025
High Beta ( $SPHB ) investing style was the largest gainer, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the largest loser. Momentum ( $MTUM ) shifted back into bullish bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) styles moved to bearish.
S&P500 Sector Style Performance - December 07 2025
Oil ( $USO ) was the best asset class last week. After a rough stretch, Oil moved up to Neutral bias, signaling potential bullish price action ahead. Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed. Bonds and the US dollar ( $IEF & $DXY ) also moved to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance - December 07 2025
COMMENTARY
Trading volume was muted last week; no surprise for the start of the holiday season. But that means we're still waiting for institutional activity to confirm a new rally.
November's ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, which was lower than estimates, October data, and on a year-over-year basis. Services PMI rose to 52.6 in November, above forecasts and October data, and matching last year.
September PCE data was inline with estimates, and remains "sticky".
| PCE (y/y) | Actual | Prior | Expected |
| Headline | +2.8% | +2.7% | +2.8% |
| Core | +2.8% | +2.9% | +2.9% |
This week, JOLTS for September and October are set for release on Tuesday, followed by another FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Best to Your Week!
P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com
If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book via the following Amazon affiliate link:
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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.
For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Current counts can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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