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  5. Stock Market Outlook - 2025-11-30
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Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of November 30th = 
Uptrend


INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Index: Bearish
    Institutional Activity: Bearish
    On Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook flipped back into an uptrend, after spending a few sessions below key moving averages.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rallied 3.7% last week.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX moved to bullish, rejoining On-Balance Volume, and putting the outlook back into an uptrend with 2 of 3 signals indicating bullish price action. Institutional activity was light last week; despite the rally back above the 50-day moving average, none of the price action met the criteria for a new uptrend.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Technical Analysis - November 30 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS

All sectors ended the week higher last week, with Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) leading the way with an impressive ~7% gain.  Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Technology regained bullish bias, while Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate move back to neutral.

Weekly price performance of S&P500 sector ETFs

S&P500 Sector Performance - November 30 2025

The gains continued across all sector styles, with Small Cap Growth putting in a ~9% improvement.  Every category also improved its bias, with a majority now back in bullish territory.

Weekly price performance by sector style

S&P500 Sector Style Performance - November 30 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) outperformed last week, but all asset classes gained ground versus the dollar.  Both Bonds and Equities ( $IEF & $SPY ) moved back to bullish bias as well.

Weekly price performance by asset class

Asset Class Performance - November 30 2025

COMMENTARY

Market participants were in a giving mood last week, pumping most assets higher during the holiday shortened week.  Not enough institutional activity for a confirmed rally, but not a bad way to end November either.

There was definitely broad participation in the gains last week, but the lower trading volumes mean most breakouts were probably weak.  Large price moves on increased volume after a period of consolidation is what you want to see when evaluating your watchlists.

Headline PPI from September showed no change, while core was down 0.3% y/y.  September retail sales and Durable Goods orders also fell slightly verses last year.

This week we'll get ISM PMI data for November, and a September PCE number on Friday!

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com



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For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Current counts can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

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