1. Invest-Safely.com
  2. >>
  3. Tracking the Stock Market
  4. >>
  5. Stock Market Outlook - 2025-09-14
`

Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of September th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Index: Uptrend
    Institutional Activity: Neutral
    On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.6%.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

We made it through the week without any institutional selling, and two distribution days fell off the count,  so the total sits at 5; still high, but not as worrisome.  Otherwise, the indicators remain bullish.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Technical Analysis - September 14 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS

The Technology sector ( $XLC ) outperformed last week, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) was the worst sector.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) "unimproved" from last week's improvement, dropping back to Bearish bias, while Utilities ( $XLU ) returned to bullish.

Weekly price performance of S&P500 sector ETFs

S&P500 Sector Performance - September 14 2025

The Momentum style ( $MTUM ) beat all comers last week, while Mid-Cap Value  ( $IJJ ) underperformed.

Weekly price performance by sector style

S&P500 Sector Style Performance - September 14 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) returned got back in the win column last week, and returned to bullish bias.  The U.S. dollar ( $DXY ) underperformed.

Weekly price performance by asset class

Asset Class Performance - September 14 2025

COMMENTARY

The NFP annual revision lowered 2024 jobs data by 911,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 818,000 revision.  It was the large revision in over 20 years, and suggests the labor market has been weaker than previously thought.  The revision gives the FOMC the needed rationale to begin cutting interest rates, although it also increases the political pressure to do more.

Inflation data was mixed, with producer prices rising more slowly than consumer prices.  Headline and Core PPI showed a decline in prices during August, even after downward revisions to July figures.

PPI (y/y) Actual Prior Expected
Headline +2.6% +3.1%* +3.3%
Core +2.8% +3.4% +3.5%

Headline CPI showed modest increases in headline data, while core remained flat at 3.1%.

CPI (y/y) Actual Prior Expected
Headline +2.9% +2.7% +2.9%
Core +3.1% +3.1% +3.1%

We've got the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday this week, with many expecting a rate cut given weaker employment data (the bond market included).  Chairman Powell "pivoted" from inflation to labor last year, so not cutting would be more surprising at this point.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com



Looking for more information on the Stock Market Outlook Signals?
You'll find it here:

Share this on social media:




Find articles and other news of interest from Invest-Safely:
Twitter (@investsafely)
Facebook (@InvestSafely)
LinkedIn (@Invest-Safely)
Instagram (@investsafely)



If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book via the following Amazon affiliate link:

How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.

It's one of my favorites.


Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company. Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Current counts can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).