The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 0.7% last week. No change versus key support levels; the index still sits ~5% and ~12% above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, respectively.
2023-07-23-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
No change in signal for the ADX; a strong uptrend continues to unfold. Price/volume also remains in an uptrend, with almost no distribution taking place over the past 5 weeks.
2023-07-23 - SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1 (Bullish)
Elliott Wave counts received a small update to the Minute wave structure, but stays mixed while we wait for the next pullback. Key support and resistance levels are 4169 and 4632. Short-term view remains bullish based on wave structure (3 of 5), while the negative divergence in the MACD histogram is bearish longer-term.
2023-07-23- SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary Y (Bearish)
Quite a bit of option-related trading last week; largest July expiration on record. We seem to be getting a lot of those (op-ex records) over the past year.
On the economic front, housing starts and permits for June were down slightly M/M, which isn't surprising given May's outperformance. U.S. Retail Sales June were also lower than expected, coming in at +0.2% M/M; not the best signal for upcoming earnings from retail names.
Big week of earnings coming up:
#earnings for the weekhttps://t.co/lObOE0dgsr$MSFT $META $GOOGL $T $VZ $ENPH $BA $F $KO $INTC $TLRY $ROKU $GM $SNAP $MMM $CLF $GE $DPZ $SPOT $V $PACW $APLD $RCL $LW $CMG $XOM $TDOC $MCD $LUV $RTX $NUE $PTC $MA $PG $CVX $CROX $NEE $ALK $VLO $NXPI $NOW $ABBV $BMY $FSLR $GEHC… pic.twitter.com/zwwXtJscdF— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) July 21, 2023
In addition to earnings, there's a lot of economic data set for release this week. Manufacturing and Services PMI from S&P Global kick things off on Monday, while Tuesday brings more housing data to the table. The FOMC releases another interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the "Advanced" Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday and June PCE on Friday.
First things first: before trading begins on Monday, Nasdaq Inc. will before a "Special Rebalance" Nasdaq 100 index to address the benchmark's "overconcentration" in the largest companies by market capitalization.
Best to Your Week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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