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  3. Stock Market Outlook - 2023-04-23

Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of April 23rd = Downtrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    Price & Volume Action: Mixed
    Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend as we continue to wait for confirmation of a new trend.

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 0.1% last week, while continuing to trade in a tight range (roughly 4130 +/- 1%) since the start of April.  The index remains above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, and is now looking for support at the prior trendline of lower highs.  The prior high (Feb.2) is the key resistance level.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2023-04-23-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily

The ADX signal shows a weak bullish trend in place.  No change in price and volume action; the unconfirmed, low volume rally continues.

Technical analysis of daily prices

2023-04-23- SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary Y (Bearish)

No change in Elliott Wave entering the week.  The MACD is on the verge of a bearish cross-over, which would confirm the negative divergence in the RSI(5).  Regardless of the count (bullish/bearish), those two data points suggest April 18th was a near-term top.  A rally above the Feb. 3rd / Intermediate (X) high of 4196 invalidates the bearish count, while dropping below the Minute [i] high of 4039 invalidates the bullish count.

Technical analysis of daily prices

2023-04-23- SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1 (Bullish)

COMMENTARY

Important data coming out this week includes Q1 GDP on Thursday, and March PCE on Friday, along with another week of earnings reports.


https://twitter.com/eWhispers/status/1649486810156879888

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics



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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

For historical Elliott Wave commentary and analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Current counts can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

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