The S&P500 ($SPX) found no technical support last week: not at the two trendlines, not at the 50-day moving average, not even at the 200-day. The higher lows mentioned last week? Tuesday took care of that trend too, as well a few other things.
First things first, the ADX directional indicators are solidly bearish and showing a strengthening trend.
2022-01-23-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The price & volume signal moved from mixed to a downtrend on Tuesday, tripping three different alarms.
The SPX followed that up by closing below the rally starting point (Dec 6), just to make sure traders got the message. Not that investors and traders needed a reminder, given that most individual stocks, especially technology names, have been selling off for some time now.
2022-01-23-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1
For Elliott Wave, the 3 most bullish counts bit the dust when the SPX fell below 4495 on Thursday.
2022-01-23-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Primary 1
That leaves us 1 uptrend and 1 downtrend remaining...a mixed signal if there was one.
2022-01-23-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Primary 1 - Minor2
It's possible that Minor 2 is still in progress. If that count is correct, we're in the final leg of the sell-off and the SPX won't get lower than 4279...that's another 2.5% or so.
2022-01-23-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Primary 2
Or, if the index can't hold 4279, it's likely that Primary  ended January 3rd and we're all "crying Jordan's" in a Primary  correction.
2022-01-23-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Weekly
Zooming out for perspective, here's what the long term count looks like at the moment.
The 10-year treasury yield spiked last week to a 2-year high, driving money out of stocks (especially the technology sector), and spiking volatility. While talking heads express shock at the moves, market action is pretty consistent with the beginning of Fed tightening cycles. Not to mention the uniqueness of the current cycle, coming off of zero and near-zero interest rate policy.
More than likely you noticed the selling a while ago in individual companies. The indexes were buoyed by megacap's like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google.
I'm not saying we don't go lower from here; just that the selling isn't abnormal from a long term perspective. Even crypto!
Best To Your Week!
Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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