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  5. Stock Market Outlook - 2021-11-21

Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of November 21st = Uptrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
    Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, as the S&P500 ($SPX) spent the week grinding higher. From a moving average perspective, the index starts the week in roughly the same position as it did last week: ~4% and 10% above the 50 and 200 day, respectively.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-11-21-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily

The ADX continues to highlight bullish price action and trend, as does price/volume. Friday was a lower close on higher volume, thanks in part to November options expiration. But the price movement wasn’t larger enough to qualify for a distribution day.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-11-21-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1

Elliott Wave maintains an uptrend. Both the RSI and MACD show negative divergences verses the rising price action; common for 5th waves, but also a sign of a weak rally.

COMMENTARY

Inflation? Inflation.

A short trading week on tap in the U.S., due to the Thanksgiving Holiday (markets closed Thursday and shortened trading hours Friday).

Historically, Thanksgiving week is a positive one for the markets, but the possible nomination of the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a wildcard this year. Personal spending and income data and the PCE index for October are released on Wednesday, which are sure to add fuel to the inflation debate.

Best to Your Week!



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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

For historical Elliott Wave Analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Other interpretations can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

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