The S&P500 ($SPX) opened last week at the 50-day moving average, but it's actually the 34-day moving average that provided resistance.
2021-10-03-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The ADX shows a strengthening bearish trend, keeping that signal in a downtrend. Price and volume signal moves from an uptrend back to mixed, as price was unable to hold the 50-day moving average after last Monday. Distribution days are still relatively low.
2021-10-03-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1
For Elliott Wave, the market took the second option from last week’s post:
Concerns over interest rates and inflation are scapegoats for the recent sell-off. Rising rates tend to put a dent in large cap tech stocks, so we may see indexes like the NASDAQ lag small caps.
It's no surprise that the S&P500 struggled lately as well, given that 20% of that index is Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Facebook.
Timing-wise, the last time we had a ~5% correction was? Last September!
It's possible that we have a similar October in the works too, which would entail a rally back near the all time highs, then a sell-off back to the September low. None of that would be a surprise, given October's historical volatility.
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