The S&P500 ($SPX) sits at all time highs, with both the ADX and price/volume signals signaling a bullish environment.
2021-07-11-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
On the downside, the ADX is still below 20 (weak trend), and we did pick up another pair of distribution days (bringing the total to 4).
2021-07-11-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1
Elliott Wave also remains in an uptrend, and looks like a corrective 4th wave took place last week (abc); a pretty consistent 4th wave pattern in this rally. If the 4th wave continues, we'll head lower early next week, with the wave (i) high from mid-June the max decline. If complete, that puts the S&P into the last wave of the Primary 1.
The S&P has had waves extend before, and this count could be wrong, so there’s no guarantee the current uptrend ends anytime soon, 5th wave or not. But the Primary 2 wave will a bear market, whenever it starts, and could retrace the entire pandemic advance! Highly unlikely given all the “support” markets have these days, but still a possibility.
Since the market is up almost 20% for the year, there’s nothing wrong with taking profits and right-sizing your position and portfolio sizes.
All eyes were on the 10-year treasury last week, with the yield dropping back to February levels. That's the opposite direction of the core inflation numbers, indicating that the bond market isn't overly concerned about the recent spike in inflation...yet.
Best to Your Week!
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).