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  5. Stock Market Outlook - 2021-07-04

Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of July 4th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
    Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to kick-off the first full week in July.

The S&P500 ($SPX) continued to rally last week, adding further distance from it’s recent test of support.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-07-04-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily

Both the ADX and price/volume signals remain bullish. The ADX trend strengthened substantially, while the number of distribution days decreased again. Price now sits ~3% and 13% above the 50 and 200 day moving averages, respectively.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-07-04-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1

Elliott Wave also remains in an uptrend, currently sitting in the the 3rd wave of the overall Minute 5, Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 1, Cycle 3 count.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-07-04-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Weekly - Cycle 3

COMMENTARY

Employment dominated the news cycle last week, with the report hitting the so-called "Goldilocks" zone. Basically, that means it had enough contradictory information to keep anyone from making changes. The U.S. added more jobs than expected (Yea!), while the overall employment number rose (Boo!).

A short trading week in the U.S., with markets closed on Monday in honor of Independence Day.


Typically, this week starts that the summer trading season, with more volatility (i.e. "choppiness") due to lower trading volumes.

Best to Your Week!



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If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link:

How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.

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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

For historical Elliott Wave Analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Other interpretations can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

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