2021-03-14-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The S&P500 ($SPX) rallied from the 50-day moving average and briefly touched an new all time high, though trading volumes left a lot to be desired.
The ADX shows a weakening "weak" trend, but it's still bearish. From a price & trading volume perspective, the signal is back to mixed as we wait for confirmation of the rally over the next 9 days (>1.5% gain on higher than average volume prior to March 22nd).
2021-03-14-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1
True to form and as eluded to last week, downtrends continue to last about 3 weeks in this run up from the pandemic low. The S&P remained above 3700, and took another run at all time highs. So the bullish alternative appears to have won out (no surprise there), and the Elliott Wave chart was updated to match.
The big news, last week, came out of Washington D.C., with the passage and signing of the American Rescue Plan (ARP). Among other things, ~$400 billion in direct payments will begin making their way into the hands of consumers via $1400 checks and direct deposits. That money "should" give the stock market some kind of boost, via increased spending or just outright investment in stocks.
In other news, the S&P500 will be shaking things up a bit on March 22. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Generac Holdings (GNRC) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) will be added to the index before market's open on March 22. They're replacing Flowserve (FLS), SL Green Realty (SLG), Xerox Holdings (XRX) and Vontier (VNT), which are moving to other indexes.
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Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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