2020-11-01-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The S&P500 ($SPX) fell through the recent support trendline. The ADX continue to worsen last week, moving from mixed to full blown bearish on Monday. Price and volume also accelerated through the 50-day moving average, flipping that signal to a downtrend as well.
2020-11-01-SPX Trendline Analysis - Primary C
The bearish count found new life last week. 3200 is still the key support level.
2020-11-01-SPX Trendline Analysis - Weekly
Not much changed in the monthly view. The “megaphone” pattern people were discussing back in September held strong.
COMMENTARY
European lock-downs also pushed markets lower over the weekend, thought the economic damage should be reduced compared to earlier this year.
U.S. elections are Tuesday, and it's really anyone's guess as to how it will turn out, both from a Presidential as well as a Congressional standpoint. The government continues to drag its collective feet on more economic stimulus, though more spending is almost guaranteed regardless of which party wins at the polls.
Speaking of which, it could take some time for the races to be decided this year, due to the number of mail in voters. All of which creates a lot of uncertainty heading into the next few weeks...and stock markets don't react well to uncertainty.
If you haven't done so yet, plan to Vote on Tuesday!
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Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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