2021-02-14-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The S&P500 ($SPX) is within a bullish trading day of 4,000. The ADX shows a weak trend getting weaker. Price/volume signal remains bullish, and leading high-growth stocks are acting well.
Declining trading volume as price reaches new highs remains a big concern, and suggests a lack of conviction from institutional traders and investors.
2021-02-14-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1
For Elliott Wave, the 5th wave uptrend rolls on. If symmetry with the 1st wave is maintained, the current wave should last a few more days before completing.
Still risk on...for now. By all typical valuation measures, stocks are extremely overvalued.
Source: Ned Davis Research (Hat Tip to CMG)
Not too surprising...where else are you going to park your money these days? Even high yield (junk) bonds aren't going to do it; yields sit at record lows!
Source: Hat Tip to CMG...again
Watch volatility ($VIX). It's still elevated when compared to the last few years, but nearing the low point of the since the pandemic sell-off. I'd expect it to be closer to 12 before we see a major sell-off (>20%), but that doesn't mean a minor one isn't in the cards (<20%).
Best to Your Week!
P.S. The 2020 Annual Performance Report should be out later this week.
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If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link:
How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.
It's one of my favorites.
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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