2020-12-20-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The S&P500 ($SPX) remains in an uptrend, based on all three signals (ADX, price & volume, and Elliott Wave. Price remains very extended from the 200-day moving average (~16% now).
2020-12-20-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis-Daily-Primary 1
Elliott Wave hasn't changed much in the recent weeks; remains in an uptrend.
Representatives in the U.S. are trying to finalize the details of a stimulus package. An agreement likely buoys the market in the coming week. But longer term, economic data shows the "recovery" is slowing (e.g. lower retail sales and job growth) as coronavirus cases continue to increase, along with the number of restrictions.
The stock market has largely shrugged off these concerns. It doesn't hurt that the Fed continues to provide support. Last week, they announced that they'll continue to buy $100 billion in assets per month and keep interest rates low, until inflation and employment increase.
A shortened trading week on tap, with the U.S. markets closing early on Thursday and remaining closed Friday in observance of Christmas.
Best to Your Week!
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Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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