The stock market outlook continues show a downtrend to start this week, with the ADX and Elliott Wave in downtrends. Price/volume is mixed.
The S&P500 ($SPX) gapped up to start last week, breaking through the bearish trendline.
2020-10-04-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The ADX starts this week in a downtrend, while the price/volume moved to mixed. The S&P registered a follow-through day (>1% move on higher volume) on Wednesday, but sold-off into the close. Price starts the week below the 50-day moving average, so I’m calling this signal mixed for now.
2020-10-04-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary C
Elliott Wave is still showing a downtrend, and it's easy to see three waves down…you can make 5 if you squint. The S&P breached 3310, which was the first sign that the current leg of the downtrend was completed.
I mentioned seeing a bunch of different counts last week, and someone asked for my “bullish” view (i.e. the Feb to Mar sell-off was the complete downtrend and now we’re back in an uptrend). Here it is:
2020-10-04-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1
The bullish view appears to show we’re in the 5th wave of a Primary 1 uptrend (verses the 1st wave of a Primary C downtrend in my bearish count). The problem with this count is the overlap of (1) and (4). It’s not a lot, but it’s there.
Either way, getting above 3429 would confirm an uptrend, while falling below 3200 reconfirms a larger downtrend.
2020-10-04-SPX Trendline Analysis - Weekly
In the weekly view, the negative RSI divergence shows up, which is why it’s possible we ended a 5th wave. And I’m still showing the bearish count here.
Well, I guess we didn't have to wait long for an October surprise; the U.S. president tested positive for COVID-19. Then again, there are a lot of people that don't think that is surprising. The Presidents health will dominate the news cycle this week, at a minimum, so expect volatility.
The U.S. unemployment rate is running around 8%, but job creation slowed. Fiscal stimulus, which many believe to have been the catalyst for the market recovery, is still being negotiated.
A while back, there was a debate about the "shape" of the recovery: U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped. As far as stocks are concerned, everyone was wrong...it was K-shaped! Technology and stay-at-home stocks (e.g. Amazon) experienced the V-shape, while more traditional/value stocks (e.g. Chevron or Glaxo-Smith) experienced something like the L-shape.
Best to your week!
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For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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