Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
October 21st = Downtrend
20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
We start this week sitting on a small, fledgling recovery within a downtrend. The 200 day moving average provided some level of support, but it's not clear if this is the start of a rally or a pause in the downtrend.
All the indexes kick things off below their 20 and 50 day moving averages, keeping this signal in a downtrend.
2018-10-21 - US Stock Market Averages
The downtrend remains from a price/volume perspective, as leading stocks continue to get trounced and prices continue to fall on higher than average trading volume.
OEW remains in a downtrend. They expected a 250 point decline, followed by a 50% retracement, and then another decline to lower lows. Last week, we recovered just under 50% of the first drop (~110 of the 230 points).
The S&P ($SPX) found support at the 200 day moving average during the week, but didn't progress much from that level either. If that level doesn't hold, a trip below 2600 is likely (losses of another 6% or so).
2018-10-21 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily
2018-10-21 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly
Now is not the time to go all in; we need some positive developments first. But take a look at your watch list and see what's holding up reasonable well in the midst of the sell-off. Those are likely the names that will lead the market higher when it turn around.
Participate. Protect. Prepare.
You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates: