Weekend Stock Market Outlook
Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
February 17th = Uptrend
ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Best to Your Week
The uptrend rolls on; no change in the technical picture, ADX, or price and volume.
Tony Caldaro, the proprietor of OEW, passed away early last week. He will be missed. We've lost a wealth of objective knowledge and insight, freely shared. It's unclear what will happen with the public-facing OEW blog; Tony had many students, so it's possible that one of them will step up and pastor the flock, so to speak. For now, we'll use the sign off from Tony's public blog posts as the signal and send our prayers to his family.
In the weekly view, S&P ($SPX) prices closed at the highs, again, so still no higher "low" to use for drawing the new uptrend.
2019-02-17 - SPX Trendline Analysis - Weekly
Switching to a daily view, prices spent most of the week flirting with the 200-day moving average, finally pulling away on above average volume Friday. I've laid in a potential uptrend, based on the most recent "low". Next up, the resistance level just above 2,800.
2019-02-17 - SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily
The DI+ / DI- continues to show a bullish environment. No change in price/volume; the markets are still in rally mode (above the 50 day moving average, limited institutional selling).
2019-02-17 - US Stock Market Averages
An interesting blog post titled, “Putting this Rally Into Historical Context” by Bryce Coward (CFA) at Knowledge Leaders Capital sheds give us some historical context for the current rally (hat tip to Steve Blumenthal over at CMG):
Several weeks ago we did some research to find out what a typical rally looks like after a big waterfall-like decline takes place. The takeaway was that the rallies after those waterfall declines have lasted anywhere from 1 to 74 days and have retraced 20-90+% of the initial decline. That’s quite a wide range in both duration and magnitude of the move, but a universal similarity was that in 19 of 19 post-war instances of a 15% uninterrupted decline (excluding the current one), the stock market ended up testing the waterfall low in some fashion.
Of course, an outlier is possible...there's a first time for everything and all that. Near- term, getting back above the 200-day is an important step in the recovery. But we can't give the all clear just yet.
Participate. Protect. Prepare.
Don't forget to check out the 2018 performance review.
If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don't find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely
. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook
Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.
If you're interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad. It's one of my favorites.
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor's chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).