Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
January 13th = Downtrend
20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Mixed
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
Constructive price action continues, but so does the downtrend.
All of the indexes are above their 20 day and are posed to test their 50 day moving averages. Continuing the prior week's trend, prices rose while trading volume declined; not the best situation for a new uptrend. A few growth stocks did indeed break-out, but not nearly enough to power the markets higher. I'm still looking for indexes to break above their 50-day moving average before changing these signals.
2018-01-13 - US Stock Market Averages
OEW continues to signal a downtrend. Tony reiterated his call that the S&P takes another run at the lows before calling a bottom, and provided some research to bolster the claim:
The S&P ($SPX) maintained upward momentum last week, but ran into resistance around 2600. Prices reached a high of 2595,2597,2596 on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively. Combined with falling trading volumes, we may have just found a near-term high.
2019-01-13 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily
Switching to a weekly view, the market closed at its 10-week moving average; could this be contributing to the lack of progress we saw on the daily chart during the back half of last week?
2019-01-13 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly
Either way, the weekly view indicates that we should see a confirmation of direction soon, because the downtrend line rests at 2,650 (+2%), and the 40-week moving average is right around 2,700 (+4%).
Are we out of the weeds? I have no idea. I know where I'd like them to go, but the markets tend to discount my opinion...as they do everyone else's. The Fat-Pitch has some historical perspective this week, similar to OEW, with a positive twist:
We'll need a catalyst to turn the rally into a new uptrend; "FANG" earnings maybe?
You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates: