Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
March 18th = Uptrend
20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
The stock market outlook remains in uptrend territory to kick off the first week of spring. All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week; another quarter-point rate hike is expected by the end of their 2-day meeting.
Most of the indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages. The DJIA lags other averages, sitting below both those technical indicators.
2018-03-18-US Stock Market Averages
Price and volume action also stays in uptrend territory. The distribution day count remains manageable. Note: Trading volume spiked last Friday on option / futures contract expirations.
OEW remains in an uptrend. In a nod to the bulls, Tony no longer sees a massive sell-off anytime soon, stating:
I'm looking for a potential replacement for the 20/50 day moving average; an indicator that works well when markets are volatile and/or extended from trending indicators such as moving averages. The Average Directional Index (ADX) caught my eye because it flashed a sell signal for the $SPX just ahead of the February sell off. At the moment, it's showing a bearish environment (DI- is higher than DI+) that's weakening (ADX is declining).
You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates: