Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
March 4th = Downtrend
20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
Friday's strong rally wasn't enough to recover from them mid-week sell-off, putting the market outlook back in downtrend territory to start this week. Plans for tariffs on steel and aluminum, and talk of the resulting trade-war didn't do the investors any favors either.
We saw the Nasdaq retake the 50 day last week, but the other indexes weren't so lucky. A majority of the indexes start this week below the 20 and 50 day moving averages, so the signal changes to a downtrend.
2018-03-04-US Stock Market Averages
Price and volume action also switches to a downtrend. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were distribution days, with markets falling on sequentially higher trading volume; a clear sign of institutional selling. Breakouts continue to struggle.
OEW continues to see an uptrend, but doesn't exclude the possibility that stock prices retest the February lows.
You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates: